定量降雨預報的原理與前景 臺灣大學大氣科學系 楊明仁教授 2014
課時列表
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1 定量降雨預報的原理與前景 (00:00:00)
1 Background (00:00:24)
1 Background (00:03:39)
1 降水預報得分指標 (00:05:44)
1 降水預報得分指標 (00:07:11)
1 QPF score of NWS in 1961-1993 (00:09:23)
1 QPF score of NWS in 1962-1993 (00:10:41)
1 QPF score of NWS in 1988-1994 (00:11:14)
1 QPF Skill at NCEP (1992-2000) (00:12:53)
1 QPF Skill at NCEP (1992-2000) (00:14:27)
1 Faster Rate of Improvement Needed (00:15:53)
1 Ensemble Forecasts of Hurricane Tracks (00:16:50)
1 Ensemble Forecast Principle (00:19:55)
1 Ensemble Forecast Principle (00:21:01)
1 Rainfall Distribution during the 2001 Mei-Yu Season (00:22:06)
1 Observed vs. Forecasted Rainfall Amount for the 12-24 h Forecast during the 2001 Mei-Yu Season (00:22:41)
1 Observed vs. Ensemble Forecasted Rainfall Amount for the 12-24 h Forecast during the 2001 Mei-Yu Season (00:23:36)
1 Observed vs. Ensemble Forecasted Rainfall Amount for the 12-24 h Forecast during the 2001 Mei-Yu Season (00:24:46)
1 ETS Scores for Four Ensemble 12-24 h Forecasts (00:25:43)
1 ETS Scores for Four Ensemble 12-24 h Forecasts (00:26:55)
1 ETS Scores for Four Ensemble 12-24 h Forecasts (00:29:53)
1 颱風定量降水系集預報實驗 (00:31:40)
1 Ensemble Forecast Experiment for Typhoon Quantitative Precipitation in 2011 (00:32:44)
1 WRF/MM5 Model Domains – 3 nested grids (00:33:34)
1 WRF/MM5 Model Domains – 3 nested grids (00:33:53)
1 Ensemble Forecast Experiment for Typhoon Quantitative Precipitation in 2010 (00:36:05)
1 Ensemble Forecast Experiment for Typhoon Quantitative Precipitation in 2010 (00:38:13)
1 Taiwan terrain and watersheds (00:39:19)
1 Mean track errors in 2011 (00:39:57)
1 Typhoon Nanmadol (00:40:05)
1 Rainfall forecast skill parameters (TS, BS, and ETS) by ensemble members for Nanmadol. (00:40:06)
1 Forecasted tracks by ensemble members and the observed track (00:40:33)
1 Forecasted tracks by ensemble members and the observed track (00:40:35)
1 0-24 h fcst rainfall by each member (00:42:01)
1 24-48 h fcst rainfall by each member (00:42:09)
1 Time series of 3-h rainfall for (a) three basins over southern Taiwan and (b) Lanyang basin (00:42:13)
1 Horizontal distribution of radar reflectivity at 00 UTC 29 August (00:42:16)
1 Horizontal distribution of radar reflectivity at 00 UTC 30 August (00:42:17)
1 Time series of 3-h rainfall for (a) three basins over southern Taiwan and (b) Lanyang basin (00:42:18)
1 Comparison of water stages between the observation and the simulation for Lanyang basin (00:42:20)
1 The 48-h simulations by18 ensemble members starting at (a) 1200 UTC 27 August (00:42:36)
1 Hourly time series of the areal-averaged water stage (in units of m) for Lanyang basin (00:43:00)
1 結論 (00:43:03)